System-dynamics model ASTRA

6 System-dynamics model ASTRA 18.6.1 General modelling approach 

Originally ASTRA was developed on the base of existing models that have been converted into a dynamic formulation feasible for implementation in system dynamics and allowing for closure of the feedbacks between the models. Among these models have been the macroeconomic model, ESCOT (Schade et al., 2002) and the classical four-stage transport model, SCENES (ME P, 2000). The ASTRA model then runs scenarios for the period 1990 until 2030 using the first 12 years for calibration of the model. Data for calibration stem from various sources, with the bulk of data coming from the EUROSTAT (2005) and the OECD online databases (OECD, 2005). A detailed description of ASTRA is provided by Schade (2005). 

The ASTRA model consists of eight modules and the version described in this section covers the 27 European Union countries (EU27) plus Norway and Switzerland. The major interlinkages and feedback loops between the eight modules are shown in Fig. 18.10. 

REM = Regional-economics module VFT = Vehicle-fleet module 

FOT = Foreign-trade module WEM = Welfare-measurement module 

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