Simple 2nd-Order Monte Carlo Analysis Case Study

3 SIMPLE 2ND-ORDER MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS CASE STUDY 

To illustrate the application of 2nd-order Monte Carlo analysis, we estimated exposure of Carolina wrens to a hypothetical pesticide in cotton fields in the southwest United States. For this case study, the pesticide is assumed to be persistent, and the goal is to estimate chronic exposure (i.e., total daily intake) at the local field scale. The input data are representative of the kinds of data available during reregistration but, for this case study, are entirely hypothetical. 

The Carolina wren is primarily an insectivorous bird (94% of diet). It is nonmi-gratory and common in the cotton belt area of the southeastern United States. This species has been frequently observed foraging in or near cotton fields. Total daily intake of the hypothetical pesticide was estimated using the equation 

The state of the inpnt knowledge can be snmmarized as follows (see also Table 7.1). TABLE 7.1 

Inputs for a 2nd-order Monte Carlo analysis to estimate exposure of Carolina wrens to a hypothetical pesticide (random variables are included in the inner loop of the Monte Carlo analysis, while random variables with uncertainty are included in both the inner and outer loops of the Monte Carlo analysis) 

---