Sensitivity Analysis H2 Production and PV Electricity Prices

Sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate the effect of changes in cost factor values on H2 production and PV electricity prices. The cost factors for H2 production are PV electricity electrolysers electrolyser operating capacity factor electrolyser efficiency (in terms of converting electricity energy input into H2 energy output) electrolyser O M expense and the discount rate. The cost factors for PV electricity 

The appropriate unit change for each of the cost factors are presented in parenthesis in Table 5. The results in Table 5 report the increase/decrease (+/-) in FF production price ( t/kg) and in PV electricity price ((t/kWh) caused by a unit increase in cost factor values. The interpretation of the effect of a unit decrease in cost factor values requires changing the sign (+/-) of the estimated change in FF production and PV electricity price. Also, note that the regression sensitivity results can be applied to component values outside the range of component values presented in Table 4. 

The sensitivity results reported in Table 5 for FF production price are as follows. A 0.01/kWh increase in electricity cost causes FF production price to increase by 0.55/kg. A 25 increase in electrolyser cost ( /kWdc-m) causes FF production price to increase by 0.04/kg. A 1% increase in electrolyser capacity factor causes FF production price to decrease by 0.02/kg. A 1% increase in electrolyser efficiency (LHV) causes FF production price to decrease by 0.04/kg. A 1% increase in electrolysis plant O M expenses, which includes water system and compressors, causes FF production price to increase by 0.09/kg. A 1% increase in the discount rate causes FF production price to increase by 0.09/kg. To evaluate the effect of a decrease in cost factor values simply reverse the sign, positive or negative, for the change in FF production price. 

The sensitivity results for PV electricity prices are as follows. A 5/m2 increase in the area cost of PV modules causes PV electricity price to increase by 0.002/kWh. A 5/m2 increase in the area BOS cost causes PV electricity price to increase by 0.002/kWh. A 1% increase in PV module efficiency causes PV electric ity price to decrease by 0.004/kWh. A 42 W/m2 increase in the average insolation level, which represents a 1.0 hour increase in the average daily peak insolation 

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