Poland allocation

Based on preliminary data from the EC for verified emissions for 21 of the 25 countries covered by the EU ETS, released on 15 May 2006. It is assumed that Poland, the main unknown, has an 18% excess allocation, similar to Hungary and the Czech Republic. The data suggest that market was 86 MtC02 (long) in 2005. See the article on auctioning (Hepburn et al., this issue). 

Most phase I NAPs provide for NE allocations based on a general emission rate and predicted activity level. For example in The Netherlands (NL), new entrants are allocated allowances based on projected output or fixed cap factor multiplied by uniform emission rate in line with that of a combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT). In France, Germany and Poland, C02-intensive power generators, such as coal-fired installations, receive the highest number of allowances per kW installed. The literature highlights the risk that NE provisions can create distortions (Harrison and Radov, 2002). In order to illustrate how these rules can impact electricity prices and C02 emissions in our GB simulations, we focus on two approaches one based on a uniform benchmark and one based on a fuel-specific benchmark. In both cases the forecast capacity factor of new entrants is fixed at 60%. 

It is assumed that Poland, the main unknown, has an 18% excess allocation, similar to Hungary and the Czech Republic. 

After the European Commission s decision the two stages of allocation (sector and installation) were preserved in Poland s NAP preparation. The ministry tried to achieve an agreement first on new sector limits and then on new allocations at installation level. The main modifications at sector level compared to the first NAP related to ... 

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