Order scheduling uncertain arrival times

Experiment 3 order scheduling with uncertain arrival times... 

In the proposed method, the uncertain arrival time should be considered according to all its possible arrival times. The above two cases both have two possible circumstances. For each case, the scheduling results of one possible circumstance have been presented in experiment 1. The scheduling results of other possible circumstances are shown in the Proposed method rows in Tables 4.9-4.10. Taking case 1 as an example, the total satisfaction level is 99.02% if the arrival time of order 4 is time 4, and the total satisfaction level is 98.92% if its arrival time is time 5. Therefore, the expectation of the total satisfaction level of case 1 is 98.94%. Similarly, the total satisfaction level of case 2 can be obtained, which is 98.64%. 

In the practical method, the uncertain arrival time of the order is replaced by its mean. That is, the arrival time of order 4 in case 1 is considered as 4.8 and the arrival time of order 3 in case 2 is considered as 2.1. Their scheduling results are shown in the Practical method rows of Tables 4.9-4.10. The total satisfaction levels of the two cases are 93.92% and 95%, respectively. These results are also worse than those generated by the proposed method. 

In each case of this ejq)eriment, some existing orders and an uncertain order are scheduled. The data for case 1 and case 2 are similar to cases 1 and 2 of experiment 1 respectively, except that order 5 is uncertain. In cases 1 and 2 of experiment 1, order 5 arrives on time 8. But, in this experiment, order 5 may come on time 8 with probability 0.3, or it may not come at all. That is, two different production events may occur in each case. If order 5 comes, five orders will be scheduled otherwise only four orders are scheduled. 

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