Mathematical model confidence building

Finally, an important step is the validation of the mathematical model performed by comparing its predictions to the experimental data from literature or in-house. The data used for validation must be different from the data used to build the model, or it will be a self-fulfilling prediction. Validation using animal or human in vivo data, whenever available, will significantly increase confidence in the model. 

Chijimatsu, M., L Jing, A Millard, TS Nguyen, A Rejeb, J Rutqvist, M Souley and Y Sugita, Building confidence in the mathematical models by calibration with a T-H-M field experiment, this volume, 2004. 

BUILDING CONFIDENCE IN THE MATHEMATICAL MODELS BY CALIBRATION WITH... 

Abstract Geological disposal of nuclear fuel wastes relies on the concept of multiple barrier systems. In order to predict the performance of these barriers, mathematical models have been developed, verified and validated against analytical solutions, laboratory tests and field experiments within the international DECOVALEX project. These models in general consider the full coupling of thermal (T), hydrological (H) and mechanical (M) processes that would prevail in the geological media around the repository. This paper shows the process of building confidence in the mathematical models by calibration with a reference T-H-M experiment with realistic rock mass conditions and bentonite properties and measured outputs of thermal, hydraulic and mechanical variables. 

But still for many problems we dp not yet have mathematical models in which we have so much confidence that we will risk large sums of money or human lives, without first testing tlieir predictions with some kind of test of a physical model. For example, although we have made great strides in corhputa-tional power, we still will not build a major new aircraft based on calculations alone, without wind tunnel tests of smaller-scale models which verify the computations. We know a great deal about chemical reactors, but not enough that we will build a full-scale plant to produce a chemical by a novel reaction... 

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