Hawkish attitudes

Of course, the assumption of one dovish and one hawkish attitude only is an oversimplification. Returning to the general case described by (6.1-3) it can be shown that there exists a plausible choice of individual transition probabilities between the elements of a set of gradually varying attitudes leading to exactly the same equation of motion (6.12) for the collective variable Pj, even though the socio-configuration considered is much more complicated. 

The first terms in dj, implying a strong preference for tension and hawkish attitudes in ifj against /", are due firstly to the destruction rate Dj inflicted -through any kind of warfare conducted by the other society iff - and, secondly, to the enhancement effect of the ensuing war readiness Qj in society ifj. Since Dj and Qj are positive semi-definite by definition, such an effect is described when pjj and ji are chosen as positive coefficients. On the other hand, the second terms in djp, are meant to describe the effect of exhaustion and war weariness in ifj leading to a breakdown of hawkish attitudes and a definitive reappearance of... 

Turning to the equations of motion for the six primary gross variables Pi, P2, E2, Qi and Q2 it is convenient to begin with the variables Pj of political psychology in In the simplest non-trivial case the socio-configuration (6.1) would consist of members of the society disposing of one dovish (a = 1) and one hawkish (a = - 1) attitude only ... 

The choice (6.26) is plausible in itself. It means that, as far as the parameters /are concerned, the transition to higher levels of the attitude a is less probable than the transition to lower levels if one starts from a positive attitude a > 0, and vice versa for attitudes starting with a < 0. The above considerations show that the reasonable assumptions of (6.13) for the transition probabilities together with the choice (6.23) lead to the simple equation of motion (6.12) for the collective variable P, as defined by (6.2), even if the underlying socioconfigurations have a complex structure with a sequence of many intermediate attitudes between dovishness and hawkishness. It will be assumed, therefore, that the equations of motion for P, (t) are of the form (6.12). 

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