Fatalities, crash calculating

Table 12-3. The relative risk of culpability in a crash with different drugs, based on culpability ratios calculated from Australian fatal crash data (from Drummer et al, 2004, with permission...

The Army s risk assessment for TOCDF and its associated storage facility was reviewed by the NRC and found to be sound (NRC, 1997). Even in the event of an earthquake or plane crash that damages the disposal plant, the risk of pubhc fatalities due to release of agent from the disposal facility is calculated to be about 5 percent of the expected risk of fatality due to releases of agent from the storage yard (U.S. Army, 1996a NRC, 1997). A more detailed discussion of the TOCDF QRA and of advances incorporated in subsequent QRAs is presented in Appendix E. 

A road tanker carrying approximately 19 tons of anhydrous ammonia crashed through a barrier at an elevated section of motorway near Houston, Texas (Pedersen and Selig, 1989 Kaiser and Walker, 1978). The pressurized tank burst on hitting the roadway below. Five people were killed and 178 people injured. High concentrations of ammonia were confined to within a few hundred meters of the source of the accident. AU the fatalities and permanent injuries were within 70 m of the release source. The concentration contours predicted from calculations and models to account for the fatalities and injuries are shown in Table 32.8. 

The first independent attempt to estimate conventionally the benefits and costs of mandatory passive restraints was made by Richard Amould and Henry Grabowski. For the reduction in fatalities and injuries in crashes they use two sets of estimates. One set is based on a 1981 field team study of rural traffic accidents which shows, for example that fatalities are reduced by 34 percent by air bags and lap belts together, 32 percent by lap and shoulder belts together, 28 percent by passive belts, and 25 percent by air bags alone. The field study estimates are only appronmately one half of the NHTSA lab study estimates which is the other set. Arnould and Grabowski assume that 60 to 70 percent of occupants with passive belts would use them and that 0 to 20 percent of occupants with air bags would also use lap belts. Occupant protection is assumed to have no affect on chances of accidents. The 1 5 distribution of traffic accident injuries and the estimates of restraint effectiveness in crashes are used to calculate the fatalities and injuries prevented. 

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