Event tree models, MORT analysis

In general, the remainder of this chapter focuses on the explanation of the various MORT event tree symbols and their use and meaning. Since the tree is an analytical model, the information presented in the previous chapter (on fault tree analysis) will be helpful and should be reviewed. 

Within process industries characterized by large production units and high levels of automation, risk and accident analysis is focused on the avoidance of low-probability events entailing serious consequences for the plant and its environment. Safety analysis is based here on causal or probabilistic models of the accidental chain of events that can serve to identify deficiencies in the design of the plant and its protective system as well as to predict the level of risk involved in an operation. Methods developed are fault tree analysis, MORT (Johnson 1975) and INRS (Leplat Rasmussen 1984). A detailed analysis of the actual, individual incident or failure is performed to identify these possible weak spots in the plant and its operation. It is a common experience that human acts play an important role in such industrial mishaps so, especially after the reactor incident at Three Miles Island in 1979, much effort has been spent on developing suitable predictive tools for the... 

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