Damage statistics

In the next section Cl and WI indices obtained after five different earthquakes are reported. The earthquakes occurred in Erzincan 1992, Diizce 1999, Bingol 2003, Wenchuan 2008, and Haiti 2010. It must be emphasized that (1) the damage statistics included only a fraction of the buildings at each site, and (2) structural and architectural properties of the buildings varied from site to site, as did the earthquake demand. The Wenchuan data were limited to a university campus. No collapses occurred. Collapses occurred in Haiti, but they were not reported, because of lack of information on the buildings that collapsed. 

Technology is developing so fast that experience gleaned from accident and damage statistics is often meager and insufficient for a credible projection into the future. 

Hybrid methods combine post-earthquake damage statistics with analytically derived nonlinear behavior using pushover analysis (e.g., Kappos et al. 1998 Barbat et al. 1996). Recently, Kappos... 

The next part of the procedure involves risk assessment. This includes a deterrnination of the accident probabiUty and the consequence of the accident and is done for each of the scenarios identified in the previous step. The probabiUty is deterrnined using a number of statistical models generally used to represent failures. The consequence is deterrnined using mostiy fundamentally based models, called source models, to describe how material is ejected from process equipment. These source models are coupled with a suitable dispersion model and/or an explosion model to estimate the area affected and predict the damage. The consequence is thus determined. 

As statistics show, during 10 years in one state and one oil company only, 18 fires have been attributed to static electricity, causing damage and product losses of millions of dollars. ... 

Individual ability to tolerate radiation damage varies, so a statistical variation exists in the relationship between dose level and health effects. Also, there are effective treatments, such as blood transfusions, for some radiation effects. The statistical patterns of human response to radiation are summarized in Table 22-5. Doses of over 600 rem are almost always fatal. 

It is presumed that the effect of carcinogenic materials is to produce critical cell damage. Thus, carcinogenic health effects models generally are dose (i.e., integrated exposure) models, not exposure models. The lack of firm statistical bases often leads to the adoption of nonthreshold, linear models, even though thresholds and nonlinear effects might be expected. 

Receptor Exposure. Exposure modeling should produce a statistically representative profile of pollutant intake by a set of receptors. This is done by combining the space/time distribution of pollutant concentrations with that of receptor populations (whether they be people, fish, ducks or property made of some material that is vulnerable to pollutant damage). The accuracy and resolution of the exposure estimates are chosen to be consistent with the main purposes of decision making. These purposes include the following ... 

In the case of health effects, other methods than stated or revealed preference methods are often used to estimate the impact of externalities and valuating the human health damages. Both productivity losses and costs for hospital admissions or other hospital-related activities are used to monetize health effects. Of special importance for the valuation of health effects are the metrics Value of a Statistical Life / Value of Prevented Fatality (VSL, VOSL or VPF) and Value of a Life Year Lost (VOLY). 

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