Daily median inflow rates of aromatic hydrocarbons for a de-alkylation plant

To model the state of the plant, a discrete Markov process is used. To calculate the transition matrix Q of a discrete Markov process, the transition probabilities between both states have to be estimated. All transitions of the recorded inflow data is used. The time series of plant states LOt are calculated by 

The corresponding steady state vector is n = (0.087,0.913). In other words, in the long run, on 8.7% of days, the de-alkylation plant suffers from an (unintended) break-down. The probability to face a break-down at a day which started in normal opemtion is 0.2%. 

When the plant operates at full capacity, there are still variations in the realized inflow rates. To model these fluctuations, the time series of average hourly inflow rates is analysed in an appropriate interval where the plant operated at full capacity. As in Example 

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Figure 4.3 Daily median inflow rates of aromatic hydrocarbons for a de-alkylation plant...

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