Actual versus potential losses

Both accidents and near-accidents may have a potential of resulting in more severe losses than the actual outcome. There are two advantages in evaluating the potential losses of the occurrences  

1 Improved possibilities of learning from experience before the occurrence of severe accidents. In practice, this means that certain events are given a more rigorous treatment than would have been the case if only the actual outcome was considered. 

2 A higher number of events are evaluated. This gives an increased statistical basis for the identification of trends and needs of remedial actions. 

This technique of assessing the potential of accidents can be further developed by also assessing the expected frequency of a reoccurrence of the events. By doing so, a risk score is achieved (low, medium or high), see Table 22.4. A high-risk score means that measures must be taken to reduce the risk of the event to a lower level by reducing frequency and/or consequence. A medium-risk score means that measures ought to be taken to reduce the risk further, based on the ALARP (as low as reasonably practicable) principle. A low-risk score means that the conditions are acceptable and no measures are necessary. 

Experiments have shown that judgements of the potential of accidents made by safety experts are reasonably reliable. At the workplaces, the supervisors may be assigned the task to make such judgements. Experience shows that a number of subjective factors influence the supervisor s assessments. There are biases in the direction of lower-risk 

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