Why uncertainty analysis

For exposure assessors, uncertainty analysis increases transparency and, thereby, the credibility of the process. Consequently, reliance on worst-case assumptions can be reduced and decision support improved. Uncertainty analysis also identifies important data gaps, which can be filled to improve the accuracy of estimation. 

The consideration and expression of uncertainty are given particular attention in the Working Principles for Risk Analysis recently adopted by the Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex, 2005 p. 104)  

Constraints, uncertainties and assumptions having an impact on the risk assessment should be explicitly considered at each step in the risk assessment and documented in a transparent manner. Expression of uncertainty or variability in risk estimates may be qualitative or quantitative, but should be quantified to the extent that is scientifically achievable. 

The report of the risk assessment should indicate any constraints, uncertainties, assumptions and their impact on the risk assessment. Minority opinions should also be recorded. The responsibility for resolving the impact of uncertainty on the risk management decision lies with the risk manager, not the risk assessors. 

The rationale for characterizing uncertainty in exposure assessment is further described in section 2.2. 

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