THE COMMITTEE PROCESS

This report is organized into five chapters. In Chapter K describes the statement of task, the committee process, the purpose for performing the study, and provides a brief overview of the amorphous nature of the threat and challenges the CBDP faces. Chapter 2 discusses the CBDP mission and the various frameworks that the CBDP organizational elements use to address their areas of responsibility. The chapter goes on to discuss the committee s view of the mission and introduces the Science and Technology (S T) Capability Categories that it has identified in order to address the statement of task. Chapter 3 describes core S T capabilities that are necessary for the CBDP and considers w here these capabilities may best be obtained. 

To better imderstand the nature of forecast errors, we compared the standard deviation of the committee forecast for individual products at the beginning of the season (i.e. ac) with its corresponding forecast error. These results, shown in Fig. 3 suggest that when the committee agrees they tend to be accurate and that the committee process is a useful way to determine what you can and what you cannot predict. 

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