The Accident Ratio Conclusion

The accident ratio conclusion is a generalization based on the work of safety research and studies conducted in some seven different countries. No figures are used, but the ratio concludes that there are plenty of near miss incidents where nothing happens, but where something might have happened, if circumstances had been slightly different. 

In summary, the accident ratio conclusion shows that for every serious or disabling injury an organization has, it could be experiencing some minor injuries, more property damage accidents, and plenty of near miss incidents. 

All of these studies clearly show the futility of investigating only the few serious or disabling injuries when there are hundreds of near miss incidents which, if investigated and their causes corrected, would have prevented the occurrence of the more serious injury-causing accidents. 

An at-risk behavior whose outcome lies off of the triangle is a near miss incident. 

An identical behavior whose result lies on the triangle is an accident. Behavior based safety investigators are not confused by the difference in chance outcomes (p. 293). 

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