Risk Assessment and Uncertainty

It is important for the engineer to evaluate the consequences of inadequate project performance relative to the probability of failure, and model studies provide the engineer with excellent tools to make such evaluations. The engineer should consider ASCE Manual No. 107, Ship Channel Design and Operation (McCartney et al. 1995) for information relative to traffic flow modeling which would be useful in evaluating traffic flow as 

TABLE 11-1. Examples of Occurrence (left) and Consequence (right) 

Occurrence Class Frequency of Occurrence Consequence Class Consequence 

01 per year or Less than 1 occurrence per 100 projects Low 100,000 or Less than 5 injuries  

Medium 0.01-1.0 per year or More than 1 occurrence per 100 projects, but less than 1 occurrence per project Medium 100,000- miUion or More than 5 injuries but fewer than 2 fatalities  

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