Probability Models for ISS and Fatalities

4 Plausibility Check and Indications for Implementation 5.4.1 Probability Models for ISS and Fatalities 

In order to check the plausibility of the GIDAS-based models for ISS (univariate and multivariate) as given by Eqs. 5.17-5.19, p. 120, and 5.28-5.30, p. 127, the conditional probability simulation described in Sect. 5.2.6.1 is used. The necessary parameters required by the models are Vc, Jped-, fnped, LBRLy, BLEy, and r.  

Using the conditional probability simulation for the GIDAS-based ISS models, it becomes obvious that constraint 2 (see Eq.5.8, p. 101) can actually be violated. Considering the models, this means that 

Symbol Scaling factor p-value Unadjusted odds ratio 

for example, ISS9+ and ISS25+ are rather far apart, a violation of constraint 2 does not arise within the parameter ranges considered, neither multi- nor univariate. ISS16+ and ISS25+ are much closer which leads to the described violation. 

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