Prediction refined product demand

In 1979 sulfur obtained as a by-product from petroleum refining accounted for 19.7 percent of total sulfur produced in the U.S. The requirement to desulfurize residual fuels or alternatively to refine them to finished transportation fuels will result in a substantial increase in sulfur produced at refineries even if medium sweet crudes continue to be the primary refinery feedstock. However, most experts predict that crudes will become sourer in the future. The contribution from natural gas is an additional uncertainty. Conventional wisdom predicts that natural gas demand will maintain current levels or possibly decline over the next 20 years. The combination of these factors may increase conventional by-product sulfur from petroleum and natural gas by a factor of three or more by the year 2000. This would bring its sulfur contribution up to approximately 12 million tons by 2000, the same as that predicted by the MITRE estimate for synthetic fuels sulfur production. Thus, a possible total contribution of 60 percent of projected sulfur demand could be met by the combination of these by-product sources of sulfur. 

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