Jumping to conclusions

We saw in Chapter 6 that the speed of a diffusive transformation depends strongly on temperature (see Fig. 6.6). The diffusive f.c.c. b.c.c. transformation in iron shows the same dependence, with a maximum speed at perhaps 700°C (see Fig. 8.1). Now we must be careful not to jump to conclusions about Fig. 8.1. This plots the speed of an individual b.c.c.-f.c.c. interface, measured in metres per second. If we want to know the overall rate of the transformation (the volume transformed per second) then we need to know the area of the b.c.c.-f.c.c. interface as well. 

A disadvantage is that a checklist may allow an investigation team to jump to conclusions, and does not provide the opportunity to think outside the box. This is especially important if the checklist is one of the less comprehensive types. It is also tempting to use the checklist too early, before all causal factors have been identified. Be sure to determine what happened and how it happened before determining why it happened. Otherwise, the team will think it has identified the right root causes, when in reality not all of the root causes have been determined. 

The fact/hypothesis matrix is another valuable tool available to the incident investigation team. This tool is used to compare the known facts against the various hypothetical scenarios. The matrix can help clarify thinking. It makes it easier to determine the most likely scenario and to refute other proposed scenarios based on the available facts. Using a matrix can help the team avoid jumping to conclusions and selecting a... 

You re jumping to conclusions, I protested. The other victims may have had completely different names for him. You need to find someone else who knew him as Honeycat before you can make such assumptions. ... 

My master snorted. You are jumping to conclusions again. You do not know for a fact that donna Alina was not present ... 

Understand a problem before you try to work it. Read it carefully, and don t jump to conclusions. Don t run the risk of misinterpretation. Learn to recognize the type of problem. 

I may have been a little hasty in jumping to conclusions, I admitted. Now I realize that I see no gory... 

This description makes the process of balancing an equation seem very long-winded, but as you get used to doing more of them, it gets faster. Now try the supplementary questions on this topic for extra practice. You ll find them after the answers to the diagnostic test. Some of them may not need changing in order to be balanced - look at each example logically and add up the number of atoms on each side first. Don t just jump to conclusions ... 

In order to guard against being dazzled or overwhelmed by the mushroom s powerfiil magic we must embrace the pursuit of in-depth research into hallucinogenic mushrooms, a method that can protect us from jumping to conclusions, and in the process, from hampering the advancement of beneficial applications. 

They must be specified in the study protocol and the appropriate adjustments to the error probabilities must be made. Similarly, one should remember that when multiple tests are performed without adjustment, as would be the case in an exploratory testing situation, one should expect to see spurious statistically significant results that may or may not be meaningful. This last comment applies particularly to statistical tests performed on adverse events and laboratory data. Adverse events reported in a study are often summarized by reporting their incidences, summarized by body system. Often, dozens of categories are listed. When formal statistical tests are applied to these data, some of these tests will result in p values less than the customary 0.05. The researcher should be cognizant of this issue and not jump to conclusions. It is strongly advis-... 

Farris brings out a giant red stop sign and holds it up to make a visual point Recognize and stop your irrational behavior. She tells her to reframe her fear based on what she knows to be true, and the woman says, I can see I am jumping to conclusions. My husband is at my side at all of my doctor appointments. He wouldn t do that if he didn t really love me and care about me. ... 

After the team has been assembled and the terms of reference generated, the first step in the formal investigation process itself is to collect information about what happened. The information will generally come from interviews, documents, instrument records, and field observations. At this stage of the investigation, it is especially important not to jump to conclusions but to let the facts speak for themselves. The focus must be on gathering data— mostly from interviews, site inspections, and the examination of instrument records. 

A second form of objectivity related to the war stories issue concerns the need to avoid jumping to conclusions based on previous experiences. For example, a chemical plant experienced a serious noninjury incident. All of the instruments at that facility were provided by a single vendor. After the event one of the operators was heard to say that Everyone knows that instruments Ifom that vendor are no good. In point of fact, the instruments performed well—the operator s prejudice probably came firom bad experiences with that vendor s products at other facilities. 

The interviewer must have a good understanding of operations terminology, engineering documentation, processes, equipment, and modem instmmentation systems. He or she must also be able to learn the basics of new technology very quickly because it is likely that the investigation will be in an area that the interviewer does not fully understand (this can actually be an advantage, since the interviewer will be less likely to jump to conclusions). 

Rather, it stresses the importance of the incident information being presented in a unified manner. The person communicating to the news media should be able to answer questions clearly without jumping to conclusions or making sensational or alarmist statements. The public perception created with just a few minutes of TV or radio interview could have a lasting effect on the worker s plant site—for good or bad. Many plants maintain a bank of dedicated computer networks and phones and faxes and a specially trained team of people that facilitate the flow of information to the public and news media. 

That was not news Edward Teller was likely to hide under a bushel, whatever Oppenheimer s official agenda. Bethe was ushered into the glare as the streamliner clicked west We had a compartment on the train to California, so we could talk freely. Teller told me that the fission bomb was all well and good and, essentially, was now a sure thing. In reality, the work had hardly begun. Teller likes to jump to conclusions. He said that what we really should think about was the possibility of igniting deuterium by a fission weapon—the hydrogen bomb. ... 

So-called lateral thinking (De Bono, 1970, 1994) is useful in handling many problems rather than following the logical procedure, one can jump to conclusions by means of opportune considerations and then return to the premise. 

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