Forecast History Data Selection

3 Numerical Example Analysis 3.3.1 Forecast History Data Selection 

Here is the product demand forecast in 2009 provided by a supply chain node enterprise. In order to calculate K value, we need to select historical demand data of this enterprise during 2000-2008. The actual data is divided into three groups, and each group has three data shown in Table 3.1. 

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The reservoir model will usually be a computer based simulation model, such as the 3D model described in Section 8. As production continues, the monitoring programme generates a data base containing information on the performance of the field. The reservoir model is used to check whether the initial assumptions and description of the reservoir were correct. Where inconsistencies between the predicted and observed behaviour occur, the model is reviewed and adjusted until a new match (a so-called history match ) is achieved. The updated model is then used to predict future performance of the field, and as such is a very useful tool for generating production forecasts. In addition, the model is used to predict the outcome of alternative future development plans. The criterion used for selection is typically profitability (or any other stated objective of the operating company). 

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