Developing Conceptual Models for Probabilistic Assessments

Conceptual models consist of 2 principal components (USEPA 1998)  

Examples of risk hypotheses given by USEPA (1998) are textual (e.g., birds die when they consume recently applied granulated carbofuran ). Eor a quantitative risk assessment it will be preferable to express risk hypotheses using formal mathematical equations. 

Various approaches and graphical conventions have been used in drawing conceptual model diagrams. Consideration could be given to recommending a standardized approach for use in probabilistic assessments. 

Suter (1999) makes a number of recommendations that may be helpful  

In addition, it may be useful to extend the conceptual model to show the relationships between the modeled states and processes and the types of information that 

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