Determination of Forecasting Model

Define the differential equation (3.17) in this form Yj KY,-Y AYtJXAt = 0, quadratic equation of one variable can be used to calculate the two roots of customers demand forecast trend value Y,  

Step 1 Base on historical data for calculation of the adjacent two data of AT, Step 2 Use (3.17) to calculate A  

Step 4 Calculate the two roots of prediction trend value Y, according to moving average value of AY, and X. 

Theoretically, if =4AY,/XAt, Eq. (3.18) will have two equal real roots, because Eq. (3.18) actually represents two curves which are shown in the changing trend of forecasting data curves. Two curves have a special point of intersection (two equal real roots), and we name this particular point as conversion point. The large sample of experimental data indicates that before the conversion point the actual value and a forecast data trends curve have close value. But after the conversion point, it follows the value of another prediction data trend cmve. 

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