Climate change possible impact

The dependence of the oxygen content in reservoirs on the hydrological input to the system opens the interesting possibility of using long-term hydrological data to quantify the impact of recent climate change. Since precipitation and river runoff... 

A controversy with possibly far-reaching consequences concerns the impact of atmospheric particles on the earth s climate. Temperature is one of the most easily monitored indicators of climatic change. Among the many discussions of the effects of aerosols on the global mean temperature, we direct the reader to the monograph by Twomey (1977) and the paper by Toon and Pollack (1980), from which some of the following is taken. 

During the last few decades, two approaches have dominated in the development of IA models (1) the use of values obtained by inter-disciplinary groups of experts (2) formal numerical modeling. The first of these approaches is characteristic of IPCC efforts and developments within the framework of the Montreal Protocol, whereas the second approach is practiced by individual specialists. The use of IA in the analysis of possible impacts of climate changes on the development of energy and economy in the context of the problem of C02 emissions to the atmosphere has attracted special attention. 

In view of these circumstances, so far results from the use of IA models to substantiate an adequate ecological policy have been rather limited, and this refers even to purely didactic assessments on the basis of simple models. The main problems of IA model improvement include insufficient understanding of probable impacts and possibilities of adaptation poorly substantiated or totally absent description of social and behavioral processes in developing countries an extremely limited idea of unlikely, non-radical climate changes. Despite these and other unsolved problems, the urgent need of further efforts in developing IA models raises few doubts. 

In developing the analyses, the committee made quantitative estimates of some of the impacts believed to be most important, but it was not able to examine all of the possible impacts. The environmental impacts examined are associated with potential global climate change caused by carbon dioxide (C02) emissions from light-duty vehicles under the various technology pathways (see Table 5-2 in Chapter 5). The committee does not attempt to estimate any impacts on... 

There is a possibility that the promotion of countermeasures for climate change will affect or be influenced by other enviroranental problems. For example, the promotion of the use of diesel for automobiles will reduce CO2, but will increase SOx and NOx. Recycling of resources consumes energy, and may increase CO2 emissions. Accordingly, when promoting measures thoroughly, it is necessary to identify the position of the climate change problem in all environmental problems, and fully analyze the impact of such measures on the environment as a whole. 

---