Bias in Risk Evaluation

An effective goal-based approach to risk management requires the application of judgement made by competent personnel taking into consideration the available evidence. But wherever human judgement is called for it leaves us susceptible to outside influences. Bias, in the context of CRM, is the tendency of an individual to make decisions based on factors other than objective evidence. 

As risk practitioners we may fool ourselves into thinking that we are all capable of setting out a rational and logical safety argument uninfluenced by softer, less objective factors. And yet, often the first step to tackling potential bias is the recognition that our decisions are always susceptible to outside influences, either consciously or subconsciously. 

Interestingly humans tend to make inaccurate judgements in predictable ways. Psychologists have characterised dozens of different cognitive biases which humans tend to exhibit and some of these are relevant in risk management. For example  

Commercial, delivery and political pressures are powerful drivers and from time to time we may be tempted to advise a course which is swayed by these contaminants. We may find ourselves being party to dialogs which include statements like  

Occasionally the carefully derived conclusions we draw from our safety analysis can be unpalatable to our peers, employers or customers and reqnire a course of action which is costly or time consuming. From a personal perspective this can present a conflict when we are also faced with managing our careers, reputation and professional standing. It is human nature that sometimes it is easier to take the path of least resistance and derive conclusions which prove popular with stakeholders rather than challenge estabhshed wisdom. 

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