Basic principles of development economics

Sections 13.1 to 13.8 will deal mainly with the economics of a field development. Exploration economics is introduced in Section 13.8. The general approach to this section will be to look at an investment proposal from an operator s point of view. 

The econom/c mode/for evaluation of investment (or divestment) opportunities is normally constructed on a computer, using the techniques to be introduced in this section. The uncertainties in the input data and assumptions are handled by establishing a base case (often using the best guess values of the variables) and then performing sensitivities on a limited number of key variables. 

From an overall economic viewpoint, any investment proposal may be considered as an activity which initially absorbs funds and later generates money. The funds may be raised from loan capital or from shareholders capital, and the net (after tax and costs) money generated may be used to repay interest on loans and loan capital, with the balance being due to the shareholders. The shareholders profit can either be paid out as dividends, or reinvested in the company to fund the existing venture or new ventures. The following diagram indicates the overall flow of funds for a proposed project. The detailed cash movements are contained within the box labelled the project . 

From this overview it is apparent that the project must generate sufficient return on the funds absorbed to at least pay the interest on loans and pay the dividend expected by the shareholders. Any remaining cash generated can be reinvested in the same or alternative projects. The minimum return expected from the investment in a project will be further discussed in Section 13.4. 

Within the project box, the cashflow oi the project (or other investment opportunity) is the forecast of the funds absorbed and the money generated during the project lifetime. Take, for example, the development of an oil field as the investment opportunity. Initially the cashflow will be dominated by the capital expenditure (capex) required to design, construct and commission the hardware for the project (e.g. platform, pipeline, wells, compression facilities). 

---