The Shortcuts We Take

It is safe to say that none of the readers are suffering from such proportional challenges as to have a head large enough to hold the brain described earher, and it is also the case that there are not any niches in the business enviromnent that can 

Obviously, failures to attend to probabihties and chance have serious implications for risk assessment and management. A substantial challenge to our management in this realm comes when we substitute our sense of understanding based upon small samples and unreasonable comparisons for events that we do not fully understand. 

The frequency with which we are presented with information, and how situations are represented can have considerable influence on how we think about 

In the supply risk realm, major disasters are likely to color managerial perceptions of the frequency of major dismptions. Combining a misconception of how widespread major disruptions are with a tendency to focus on avoiding negative events to the exclusion of more positive events may drive actions where supply management professionals spend more on preventing rare events than is warranted, while at the same time paying less attention to comparatively common sources of risk than is appropriate. 

There is good evidenee that within the judgment and decision making realm, confidence is related to self evaluation and optimism (Wolfe and Groseh 1990). It is hardly novel to think that positive self evaluations might aceompany professional advancement and accomplishments. That this would be linked to 

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