Ozone loss uncertainties

However, even if such measurements were possible, would the uncertainty of the result be small enough to establish that production does indeed balance observed loss of ozone The calculation of ozone loss in the Antarctic ozone hole was shown to have an uncertainty of 35 to 50%. The uncertainty for analyzing whether production balances loss in the midlatitude stratosphere is similarly 35 to 50%. About half of the uncertainty is in the measurements of stratospheric abundances, which are typically 5 to 35%, and half is in the kinetic rate constants, which are typically 10 to 20% for the rate constants near room temperature but are even larger for rate constants with temperature dependencies that must be extrapolated for stratospheric conditions below the range of laboratory measurements. In addition to uncertainties in the photochemical rate constants, there are those associated with possible missing chemistry, such as excited-state chemistry, and the effects of transport processes that operate on the same time scales as the photochemistry. Thus, simultaneous measurements, even with relatively large uncertainties, can be useful tests of our basic understanding but perhaps not of the details of photochemical processes. 

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