Forecasting Is the Achilles Heel

Throughout this progression, supply chain efficiency is inexorably linked with a better understanding of exactly what is being demanded of the system. All of the process steps mentioned are affected by what is needed, when it is needed, and where it is needed. And forecast error often becomes the scapegoat for lack of an efficient response. Accurate forecasts are an oxymoron. The fact of the matter is that forecasts will always be inaccurate. In advanced supply chain, the challenge is careful management 

Nevertheless, forecasting will remain an inexaet seienee. In general terms, the most common mistakes interfering with the development and deployment of a successful forecasting system inelude  

Finding solutions to these impediments and eliminating what becomes the Achilles heel of supply chain management requires a rigorous effort to improve sales forecast accuracy. That starts with the realization that most sales forecasts are based on history, adjusted by sales predictions. 

The need to integrate judgment with mathematical techniques has become a critical issue for improved performance in the area of predicting what any system should plan and produce. The reality is that forecasting consists of equal parts modeling and sound management. 

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