Binomial distribution conjugate prior

A lrLL[uently encountered problem requires estimating a failure probability based on the number of failures, M, in N tests. These updates are assumed to be binomially distributed (equation 2.4-10) as p r N). Conjugate to the binomial distribution is the beta prior (equation 2.6-20), where / IS the probability of failure. 

A number of issues arise in using the available data to estimate (he rates of location-dependent fire occurrence. These include the possible reduction in the frequency of fires due to increased awareness. Apostolakis and Kazarians (1980) use the data of Table 5.2-1 and Bayesian analysis to obtain the results in Table 5.2-2 using conjugate priors (Section 2.6.2), Since the data of Table 5.2-1 are binomially distributed, a gamma prior is used, with a and P being the parameters of the gamma prior as presented inspection 2.6.3.2. For example, in the cable- spreading room fromTable 5.2-2, the values of a and p (0.182 and 0.96) yield a mean frequency of 0.21, while the posterior distribution a and p (2.182 and 302,26) yields a mean frequency of 0.0072. 

Conjugate prior for binomial(n, tt) distribution is the befa(a, b) distribution. The conjugate prior will have the form... 

When the observation comes from the binomial n, tt) distribution, the conjugate prior distribution for tt is beta a, b). The posterior is beta a, b ) where the constants are found by... 

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